Statistical Analysis of Climate Projections (eSACP)
Supporting sound decision-making in the face of climate change
The Nordic countries can all expect to encounter the effects of climate change in coming years. While some of these impacts will be similar, some will be specific to the individual countries. The countries vary in their vulnerability to climate change: for example, the shift in the length of the growing season will not be the same in Denmark as in Finland; forestry is more important in Finland and Sweden than in Denmark and Norway; hydropower is dependent on the amount of precipitation that falls as snow in mountainous regions and melts when spring arrives. Hydropower-generated electricity benefits the entire Nordic region, but prices will depend on the extent of meltwater and when runoff occurs. Wind power prices in Denmark are a factor of wind levels and of how predictable the wind is, as market forces can use knowledge about the future to set prices for future deliverables.
Tools for climate projections
It is essential to have reliable, easy-to-use tools to understand future climate change. This will help the parties involved, such as decision-makers, to make sound decisions that take adequate account of the impacts of future changes to the climate.
The research project Statistical Analysis of Climate Projections (eSACP) is working to compile the best methods for predicting climate change, assess the inherent uncertainty of each method and make use of new knowledge about the future climate in the Nordic countries. This will create an optimal foundation for climate projections. The eSACP project will also create a suite of tools to enable decision-makers to choose between different potential measures, including an assessment of economic factors that must also be considered before the optimal decisions can be taken.
Researchers working on the eSACP project know how difficult it can be to imagine the impacts of climate change, and are therefore seeking to develop visualisation tools that give users the best possible basis for envisaging and understanding the wealth of data available on future climate conditions and, not least, the inherent uncertainty invariably associated with climate projections.
The project has received NOK 4 million in funding over a three-year period.
The institutions participating in the project are the Meteorological Institutes in Norway, Finland and Denmark, as well as the Norwegian Computing Center (NR), the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) in Norway.