Critical Understanding of Predictive Policing (CUPP)

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Project leader: Vasilis Galis, IT University of Copenhagenm, Denmark
Project duration: 2021-2024
Participating countries: Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Norway and the UK
Funding from NordForsk: 99,9847 EUR
Project website: cuppresearch.info

The aim of the CUPP project was to investigate how institutional and social values, digital affordances, and organizational politics are conceived and embedded in datadriven police innovations, as well as experienced and practiced by police officers and developers of digital police infrastructure in Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Norway, Sweden and the UK. The project applied an interdisciplinary framework at the intersection of Science and Technology Studies (STS), Critical Criminology, and Critical Big Data Studies to identify and explore the related effects and impact of data driven police technologies on society and end-users. CUPP constituted a comprehensive technology assessment to critically study and evaluate new police technologies as well as to inform and build public and political opinion about them.

Key Findings

  • Initially hailed as a ‘super weapon,’ POL-INTEL is now referred to as a routine tool and basic search engine for the police. Although it has accelerated police analyses, its structure relies on embedded decisions made by private actors and the police itself, rather than an objective or scientific framework.
  • The case study in Denmark revealed a lack of political debate, transparency, and understanding of the software’s technical aspects among politicians, highlighting a significant democratic deficit in the procurement and implementation of such complex systems.
  • The implementation of STATUS was motivated by utilising existing competence in Sweden in a Public Private Partnership. While the project was informed by a notion of police work as inherently scientific, objective and unbiased, the case study found that the implementation of STATUS has been accompanied by biased policing practices, where individuals from marginalized communities are disproportionately targeted and subjected to police scrutiny.
  • New digital police tools such as speed cameras, drones, and mobile apps are changing how traffic is managed and enforced. While meant to improve prevention of accidents, the punishment aspect may not actually help change drivers’ behaviour. Additionally, the increasing use of these tools could lead to them being used for purposes beyond their original intent (function creep), raising concerns about basic rights and data protection.
  • The three studied technology systems in Estonia primarily targeted vulnerable groups, heightening control and suspicion toward them. This has deepened existing inequalities, yet the increased surveillance has quickly become normalised and is seen by many as fair. The study also showed that how technologies are presented strongly impacts public opinion, often overriding existing reservations. In conclusion, transparency and critical discussion are crucial to highlight how new digital tools can contribute to criminalising certain parts of the population.
  • Digital tools are built on certain assumptions and can shape police work. The officers in Norway, however, still prioritise their professional judgment over software-generated probabilities. Additionally, the Norway’s police faced internal conflicts regarding the Palantir platform Omnia, which struggled to integrate with existing systems. Overall, the adoption of digital policing technologies in Norway has been slower due to a preference for gradual change and preserving public trust.
  • The UK has a long history of surveillance programs, with facial recognition technology (FRT) for law enforcement being one of the most controversial. Often it perpetuates and even worsens long-standing historical discriminations. The study found that police officers themselves are split as to the benefits and efficiency, given the significant high rates of mismatches. Meanwhile, the researchers also found a high level of sophistication and knowledge in parts of the public regarding the uses and pitfalls of the technology.

Impact Story

The police in Denmark and Norway work with the American software company Palantir. When studying the company, the CUPP team found that the company has created a world of semantics, that is, interpretations with classifications, categorisations, and options embedded in the software systems. These systems are prompting the police to perform in a certain way. When the police officers go to their mobile phones or tablets to register something, they’re exposed to certain options such as burglary, attempted murder, or something similar. The research indicates that because of these classifications, certain crimes are prioritised over others, such as gang crime over domestic violence. Consequently, digital tools are not only technologies that describe the world, but they also influence the world.

“Our ambition for the impact of our research project is to shake up the societies and make them aware that there are other alternatives to the ‘new’ way of policing. Because what governments and police authorities have put forward as a very scientific and neutral procedure is in fact not neutral. Societies ought to explore alternatives that will hopefully provide more transparency and respect basic human rights”, says project leader Vasilis Galis.

Key outputs

Galis, Vasilis, Helene O.I. Gundhus, and Antonis Vradis. Critical Perspectives on Predictive Policing. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, (2025). DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781035323036

Masso, Anu, Kasapoglu, Tayfun, Kaun, Anne and Galis, Vasilis “Citizens’ perspectives on platformisation of police work: a scenario and story-based exploration in Estonia and Sweden” in Information, Communication & Society, 1–19, (2024). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2024.2333842

Galis, Vasilis and Karlsson, Björn “A world of Palantir – ontological politics in the Danish police’s POLINTEL” in Information, Communication & Society, 1–19, (2024). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2024.2410255

Barkane, Irena, Adamsone-Fiskovica, Anda and Kilis, Emils. “Creeping Road Traffic Surveillance in Latvia: Social and Legal Implications of Digital Policing Tools” in Surveillance & Society, Vol. 21 No. 4 (2023). DOI: https://doi.org/10.24908/ss.v21i4.15812

Gundhus, H. O. I., Skjevrak, P. E., & Wathne, C. T. (2023). “We will always be better than a spreadsheet: Intelligence logic and crime prevention in practice” in European Journal of Policing Studies, 6(1), 27–49. https://doi.org/10.5553/EJPS/2034760X2022001009

Egbert, S., Galis, V., Gundhus, H. O. I., & Wathne, C. T. (2024). “The platformization of policing: A cross-national analysis” in Policing and Intelligence in the Global Big Data Era, Volume I: New Global Perspectives on Algorithmic Governance (pp. 349-392). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland.

Kilis, E., Gundhus, H. O. I, & Galis, V. (2025). "Prediction". In M. Kaufmann & H. M. Lomell (Eds.), Handbook of Digital Criminology. De Gruyter

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