As democracy backslides and authoritarianism spreads, autocracies expand their reach globally. Autocratic regimes are increasingly weaponizing new digital technologies and transnational social spaces to control dissenting voices beyond their own borders and jurisdictions. Although tactics differ across regimes, transnational repression (TNR) is broadly understood as attempts by regimes to punish, deter, undermine, and silence activism in the diaspora.
Increasingly adversarial geopolitics and a weakening liberal order have forced Nordic-Baltic states to recognize that TNR is not a threat specific to refugees—it challenges their own sovereignty, democracy and security. TNR interferes with liberal-democratic principles of open debate and national self-determination. It also impedes a host state’s ability to safeguard fundamental freedoms and norms while undermining its authority to ensure security on its territory.
Governments and security services in Norway (PST), Sweden (SÄPO) and Estonia (EISS) have all identified TNR as an increasing threat. Just months ago, the Norwegian parliament instructed the government to take steps to prevent TNR and consider developing a national action plan against it. Sweden’s comprehensive approach has been lauded for treating TNR as a challenge not just for law enforcement and intelligence agencies but also to societal security and sovereignty, Estonia (along with Latvia and Lithuania) recently signed the Declaration of Principles to Combat Transnational Repression, formalizing its position that TNR threatens democracy and human rights worldwide.
Such policy shifts in the region underscore the need for forceful actions to deter autocrats. A solid knowledge base is equally essential. The ANTAGON project provides new, comparative insights by empirically exploring origin state justifications of TNR, host state responses to it, and diasporic experiences of it in Norway, Sweden and Estonia. We focus on the Russian, Uyghur and Kurdish diasporas, and a complementary category of nationally diverse migrants in Norway and Sweden, sampled for diversity.
Policy lessons and actionable measures identified in ANTAGON will enable policies that can better safeguard fundamental freedoms under conditions of globalized authoritarianism.
